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Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 05:00

Preston Lions

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dandenong Thunder

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-18.5%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-16.9%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-16.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.5% 89.3% 1.12 -26.6%

Draw 19.7% 14.8% 6.75 +19.8%

Away win 14.8% 6.3% 16.00 +82.1%

Over 2.5 59.5% 74.1% 1.35 -19.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 54.1% 1.85 -32.5%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 85.5% 1.17 -26.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 18.2% 5.50 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions2.2

Dandenong Thunder0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.70

DANDENONG THUNDER · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 65.5%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -26.6%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +19.8%

Dandenong Thunder (A) 14.8%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +82.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Dandenong Thunder in Australia - NPL Victoria on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Dandenong Thunder 15%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Preston Lions and 0.7 for Dandenong Thunder (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.55 for Dandenong Thunder. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +60.1%.

Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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