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Altona Magic vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sunshine Georgies

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.4%0-29.1%0-34.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.3%2-16.2%2-24.6%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 44.4% 2.25 -31.6%

Draw 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -4.3%

Away win 43.1% 36.4% 2.75 +18.5%

Over 2.5 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Over 3.5 29.4% 38.5% 2.60 -14.1%

BTTS 53.3% 66.7% 1.50 -20.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 51.8% 1.93 -37.1%

Away O1.5 46.4% 46.5% 2.15 -0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.3%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.0

Sunshine Georgies1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.73

SUNSHINE GEORGIES · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.47, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -31.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.3%

Sunshine Georgies (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Sunshine Georgies in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Sunshine Georgies 43%, so Sunshine Georgies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Altona Magic and 1.5 for Sunshine Georgies (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.36 for Sunshine Georgies. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Altona Magic vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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