Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / St. Albans Saints vs Bentleigh Greens

St. Albans Saints vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 10:30

St. Albans Saints

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bentleigh Greens

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.1%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-111.7%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Draw 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

Away win 23.9% 29.9% 3.35 -12.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Away O1.5 30.3% 38.5% 2.60 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans Saints1.6

Bentleigh Greens1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS SAINTS · PPG 1.27

BENTLEIGH GREENS · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans Saints (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.0%

Bentleigh Greens (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans Saints face Bentleigh Greens in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans Saints a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Bentleigh Greens 24%, so St. Albans Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for St. Albans Saints and 1.0 for Bentleigh Greens (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans Saints are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.40 for Bentleigh Greens. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.4%.

St. Albans Saints vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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