Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Heidelberg United vs Hume City

Heidelberg United vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 05:00

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hume City

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.3%0-26.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.2%1-111.4%1-28.9%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.8%2-26.1%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Draw 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

Away win 40.9% 34.5% 2.90 +18.6%

Over 2.5 58.2% 60.6% 1.65 -4.0%

Over 3.5 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

BTTS 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Home O1.5 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Away O1.5 47.3% 44.4% 2.25 +6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.3%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg United1.4

Hume City1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.45

HUME CITY · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg United (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.7%

Hume City (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg United face Hume City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg United a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Hume City 41%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Heidelberg United and 1.6 for Hume City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg United are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.82 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Heidelberg United vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions