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Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh Cannons

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Green Gully

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.6%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-16.8%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.7%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-19.2%4+-23.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 78.1% 1.28 -13.3%

Draw 16.8% 20.0% 5.00 -9.6%

Away win 15.5% 11.4% 8.80 +21.8%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 40.3% 45.5% 2.20 -11.3%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh Cannons2.6

Green Gully0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH CANNONS · PPG 2.00

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.64 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh Cannons (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -13.3%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.6%

Green Gully (A) 15.5%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh Cannons face Green Gully in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh Cannons a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Green Gully 16%, so Oakleigh Cannons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Oakleigh Cannons and 0.7 for Green Gully (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh Cannons are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.64 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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