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Avondale vs Heidelberg United Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:30

Avondale

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.4%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.9%1-17.9%1-25.4%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.2%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-17.2%4+-24.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 51.3% 1.95 +8.6%

Draw 21.8% 27.4% 3.65 -12.3%

Away win 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 65.4% 1.53 +2.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Away O1.5 43.7% 45.5% 2.20 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avondale2.3

Heidelberg United1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AVONDALE · PPG 2.09

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Avondale (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +8.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.3%

Heidelberg United (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avondale face Heidelberg United in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avondale a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Heidelberg United 23%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Avondale and 1.4 for Heidelberg United (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avondale are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.64 for Heidelberg United. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.1%.

Avondale vs Heidelberg United Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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