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Dandenong City vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Altona Magic

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.6%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.0%1-111.9%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 51.3% 1.95 -11.1%

Draw 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -5.9%

Away win 29.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 64.5% 1.55 -16.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 42.0% 2.38 -24.3%

BTTS 54.5% 67.6% 1.48 -19.3%

Home O1.5 45.7% 57.8% 1.73 -20.9%

Away O1.5 34.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City1.6

Altona Magic1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.64

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -11.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.9%

Altona Magic (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Altona Magic in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Altona Magic 30%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dandenong City and 1.2 for Altona Magic (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.64 for Altona Magic.

Dandenong City vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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