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Hume City vs Melbourne City II Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:00

Hume City

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Melbourne City II

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.8%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.5%1-110.5%1-28.5%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.6%3-14.3%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 61.7% 1.62 -41.0%

Draw 24.4% 24.4% 4.10 +0.0%

Away win 39.1% 23.8% 4.20 +64.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 67.6% 1.48 -9.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

BTTS 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Home O1.5 45.8% 66.7% 1.50 -31.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 38.2% 2.62 +25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.7%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City1.6

Melbourne City II1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 1.82

MELBOURNE CITY II · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 36.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -41.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.0%

Melbourne City II (A) 39.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +64.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Melbourne City II in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Melbourne City II 39%, so Melbourne City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hume City and 1.6 for Melbourne City II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.82 for Melbourne City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.5%.

Hume City vs Melbourne City II Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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