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Sunshine Georgies vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 08:00

Sunshine Georgies

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avondale

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.0%0-27.5%0-34.7%0-4+3.3%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-16.6%2-26.1%2-33.8%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 19.2% 5.20 +62.8%

Draw 23.5% 23.8% 4.20 -0.8%

Away win 45.2% 66.7% 1.50 -32.2%

Over 2.5 59.9% 64.5% 1.55 -7.2%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

BTTS 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 31.3% 3.20 +21.3%

Away O1.5 53.8% 69.0% 1.45 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.6%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunshine Georgies1.3

Avondale1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNSHINE GEORGIES · PPG 1.45

AVONDALE · PPG 1.36

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sunshine Georgies (H) 31.3%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +62.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.8%

Avondale (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunshine Georgies face Avondale in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunshine Georgies a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Avondale 45%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sunshine Georgies and 1.9 for Avondale (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunshine Georgies are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.36 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +41.3%.

Sunshine Georgies vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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