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South Melbourne vs St. Albans Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 05:30

South Melbourne

PPG 0.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

St. Albans Saints

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.9%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.1%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.0%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.5%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 61.7% 1.62 -25.6%

Draw 24.6% 25.3% 3.95 -1.7%

Away win 29.5% 22.7% 4.40 +17.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Over 3.5 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

BTTS 58.9% 66.7% 1.50 -11.7%

Home O1.5 49.4% 66.7% 1.50 -25.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 37.7% 2.65 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 7.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne1.6

St. Albans Saints1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 0.91

ST. ALBANS SAINTS · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -25.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.7%

St. Albans Saints (A) 29.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face St. Albans Saints in Australia - NPL Victoria on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 46% chance, the draw 25% and St. Albans Saints 30%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for South Melbourne and 1.4 for St. Albans Saints (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.18 for St. Albans Saints. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

South Melbourne vs St. Albans Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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