Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Melbourne City II vs South Melbourne

Melbourne City II vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne City II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Melbourne

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.7%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.6%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 19.0% 5.25 +85.9%

Draw 24.1% 22.7% 4.40 +3.6%

Away win 40.5% 69.0% 1.45 -41.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 69.0% 1.45 -13.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

BTTS 60.9% 64.5% 1.55 -5.6%

Home O1.5 45.1% 33.3% 3.00 +35.3%

Away O1.5 42.6% 71.4% 1.40 -40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.9%

H 35% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne City II1.5

South Melbourne1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE CITY II · PPG 1.00

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne City II (H) 35.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +85.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.6%

South Melbourne (A) 40.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -41.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne City II face South Melbourne in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne City II a 35% chance, the draw 24% and South Melbourne 41%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Melbourne City II and 1.4 for South Melbourne (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne City II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.27 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.3%.

Melbourne City II vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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