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Sacramento Republic vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 03:00

Sacramento Republic

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lexington

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-112.0%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Draw 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Away win 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Over 2.5 52.5% 51.3% 1.95 +2.4%

Over 3.5 30.5% 29.0% 3.45 +5.2%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 46.4% 48.8% 2.05 -4.9%

Away O1.5 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sacramento Republic1.6

Lexington0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 2.00

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sacramento Republic (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Lexington (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sacramento Republic face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sacramento Republic a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Lexington 25%, so Sacramento Republic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sacramento Republic and 0.9 for Lexington (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sacramento Republic are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.2%.

Sacramento Republic vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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