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Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:00

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.6%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Draw 23.2% 28.2% 3.55 -10.6%

Away win 23.3% 29.9% 3.35 -13.2%

Over 2.5 54.5% 58.8% 1.70 -7.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Away O1.5 24.6% 38.5% 2.60 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakland Roots1.9

Monterey Bay0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.20

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oakland Roots (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.6%

Monterey Bay (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakland Roots face Monterey Bay in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakland Roots a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Monterey Bay 23%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Oakland Roots and 0.9 for Monterey Bay (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakland Roots are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.20 for Monterey Bay. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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