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San Antonio vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:00

San Antonio

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

El Paso Locomotive

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.5%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.9%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 24.5% 34.5% 2.90 -17.4%

Over 2.5 51.9% 54.1% 1.85 -4.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Away O1.5 32.2% 39.2% 2.55 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Antonio1.6

El Paso Locomotive1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 2.00

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Antonio (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

El Paso Locomotive (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Antonio face El Paso Locomotive in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Antonio a 50% chance, the draw 25% and El Paso Locomotive 25%, so San Antonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for San Antonio and 1.0 for El Paso Locomotive (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Antonio are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for El Paso Locomotive. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%.

San Antonio vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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