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Colorado Springs vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:00

Colorado Springs

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Birmingham Legion

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.6%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.2%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Draw 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Away win 22.9% 20.0% 5.00 +8.7%

Over 2.5 57.7% 61.7% 1.62 -6.5%

Over 3.5 34.4% 39.2% 2.55 -12.3%

BTTS 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Home O1.5 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Away O1.5 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Springs1.9

Birmingham Legion1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 1.89

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Springs (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -16.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Birmingham Legion (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Springs face Birmingham Legion in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Springs a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Birmingham Legion 23%, so Colorado Springs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Colorado Springs and 1.0 for Birmingham Legion (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Springs are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.86 for Birmingham Legion. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.7%.

Colorado Springs vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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