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New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:30

New Mexico United

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.4%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.3%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 46.5% 2.15 +9.4%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -6.1%

Away win 22.7% 33.3% 3.00 -19.1%

Over 2.5 49.3% 55.6% 1.80 -11.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

BTTS 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 39.2% 2.55 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Mexico United1.5

FC Tulsa0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 2.12

FC TULSA · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New Mexico United (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.1%

FC Tulsa (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

New Mexico United face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Mexico United a 51% chance, the draw 26% and FC Tulsa 23%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for New Mexico United and 0.8 for FC Tulsa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Mexico United are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.57 for FC Tulsa.

New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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