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Hartford Athletic vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Hartford Athletic

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Miami FC

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-111.8%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 56.5% 1.77 -22.3%

Draw 32.2% 27.8% 3.60 +15.9%

Away win 23.8% 26.0% 3.85 -5.0%

Over 2.5 37.0% 58.8% 1.70 -37.1%

Over 3.5 18.0% 36.4% 2.75 -30.3%

BTTS 47.7% 61.7% 1.62 -22.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 57.8% 1.73 -47.8%

Away O1.5 17.8% 35.1% 2.85 -29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartford Athletic1.1

Miami FC0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.14

MIAMI FC · PPG 0.78

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hartford Athletic (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -22.3%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +15.9%

Miami FC (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartford Athletic face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartford Athletic a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Miami FC 24%, so Hartford Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hartford Athletic and 0.8 for Miami FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartford Athletic are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.78 for Miami FC.

Hartford Athletic vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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