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Las Vegas Lights vs Brooklyn Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas Lights

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brooklyn

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.2%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.1%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 22.1% 26.0% 3.85 -8.9%

Over 2.5 59.5% 60.6% 1.65 -1.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 60.8% 59.9% 1.67 +1.5%

Away O1.5 24.5% 37.0% 2.70 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas Lights2.1

Brooklyn0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.44

BROOKLYN · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas Lights (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -1.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Brooklyn (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas Lights face Brooklyn in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas Lights a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Brooklyn 22%, so Las Vegas Lights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Las Vegas Lights and 0.9 for Brooklyn (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas Lights are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.67 for Brooklyn. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Las Vegas Lights vs Brooklyn Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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