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Orange County SC vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:00

Orange County SC

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Louisville City

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.7%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.6%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.6%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 25.0% 4.00 +110.0%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 25.2% 57.1% 1.75 -33.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 42.6% 33.9% 2.95 +25.7%

BTTS 61.6% 59.9% 1.67 +2.9%

Home O1.5 55.3% 33.3% 3.00 +65.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 57.1% 1.75 -35.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orange County SC2.0

Louisville City1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 1.75

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orange County SC (H) 52.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +110.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Louisville City (A) 25.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orange County SC face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orange County SC a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Louisville City 25%, so Orange County SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Orange County SC and 1.2 for Louisville City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orange County SC are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.22 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +101.3%.

Orange County SC vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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