Today / USA - USL Championship / Detroit City vs Loudoun United

Detroit City vs Loudoun United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Detroit City

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Loudoun United

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-14.9%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.1%1-19.5%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-16.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-14.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 64.5% 1.55 -7.3%

Draw 23.4% 25.3% 3.95 -4.5%

Away win 16.8% 20.0% 5.00 -9.6%

Over 2.5 51.5% 60.6% 1.65 -15.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 38.5% 2.60 -22.0%

BTTS 48.4% 59.9% 1.67 -19.2%

Home O1.5 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Away O1.5 17.2% 30.3% 3.30 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 60% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Detroit City2.0

Loudoun United0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DETROIT CITY · PPG 2.38

LOUDOUN UNITED · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Detroit City (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -7.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.5%

Loudoun United (A) 16.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Detroit City face Loudoun United in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Detroit City a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Loudoun United 17%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Detroit City and 0.7 for Loudoun United (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Detroit City are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.14 for Loudoun United.

Detroit City vs Loudoun United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions