Today / USA - USL Championship / Sporting JAX vs Indy Eleven

Sporting JAX vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Indy Eleven

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.9%0-25.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.4%1-19.6%1-28.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 26.0% 3.85 +56.7%

Draw 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

Away win 36.0% 57.1% 1.75 -37.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 61.7% 1.62 +3.8%

Over 3.5 42.6% 39.2% 2.55 +8.6%

BTTS 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Home O1.5 47.2% 37.7% 2.65 +25.1%

Away O1.5 47.7% 60.6% 1.65 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 36% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX1.6

Indy Eleven1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.67

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 0.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 40.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +56.7%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.6%

Indy Eleven (A) 36.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face Indy Eleven in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Indy Eleven 36%, so Sporting JAX are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sporting JAX and 1.8 for Indy Eleven (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.25 for Indy Eleven. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.1%.

Sporting JAX vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions