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Al Ula vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 17:45

Al Ula

PPG 2.21 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Jabalain

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.7%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.7%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.8%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.5%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 60.6% 1.65 -2.3%

Draw 21.0% 27.4% 3.65 -23.4%

Away win 19.8% 21.7% 4.60 -8.9%

Over 2.5 60.8% 57.8% 1.73 +5.2%

Over 3.5 38.5% 36.4% 2.75 +5.9%

BTTS 58.0% 60.6% 1.65 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.0%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ula2.0

Al Jabalain1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ULA · PPG 2.21

AL JABALAIN · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.21) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ula (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -2.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -23.4%

Al Jabalain (A) 19.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ula face Al Jabalain in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ula a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Al Jabalain 20%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Ula and 1.1 for Al Jabalain (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ula are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.57 for Al Jabalain. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Ula vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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