Al Ula vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Regular Season - 30 Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium· Medina Monday, April 20, 2026 17:45

Al Ula PPG 2.21

0-0 MISS

Al Jabalain PPG 1.57

Over3.5· +5.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ula face Al Jabalain in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ula a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Al Jabalain 20%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Ula and 1.1 for Al Jabalain (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ula are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.57 for Al Jabalain. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%

Odds: 1.65 EV: -2.3%

Draw 21.0%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -23.4%

Away 19.8%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -8.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.8% Odds: 1.73 +5.2%

Over 3.5 38.5% Odds: 2.75 +5.9%

BTTS 58.0% Odds: 1.65 -4.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Ula

2.05

Al Jabalain

1.10

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +5.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+5.9%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.21) > Away GOOD (1.57)