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Sporting CP B vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 17:45

Sporting CP B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Felgueiras

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 37.0% — a clear edge.

+69.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-16.3%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-110.5%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-14.8%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-12.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 37.0% 2.70 +69.8%

Draw 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -26.2%

Away win 13.3% 39.7% 2.52 -66.5%

Over 2.5 39.4% 46.5% 2.15 -15.3%

Over 3.5 19.3% 26.0% 3.85 -25.7%

BTTS 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob36.8%

H 63% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP B1.7

Felgueiras0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP B · PPG 1.50

FELGUEIRAS · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP B (H) 62.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +69.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -26.2%

Felgueiras (A) 13.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -66.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP B face Felgueiras in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP B a 63% chance, the draw 24% and Felgueiras 13%, so Sporting CP B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sporting CP B and 0.6 for Felgueiras (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.93 for Felgueiras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +69.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Sporting CP B vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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