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FC Porto B vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 17:45

FC Porto B

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Leixoes

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 40.3% — a clear edge.

+53.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.1%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-110.0%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 40.3% 2.48 +53.0%

Draw 21.2% 30.3% 3.30 -30.0%

Away win 17.2% 38.8% 2.58 -55.6%

Over 2.5 55.9% 50.0% 2.00 +11.8%

Over 3.5 33.5% 28.6% 3.50 +17.3%

BTTS 52.5% 57.8% 1.73 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.5%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto B2.0

Leixoes0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.86

LEIXOES · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto B (H) 61.7%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +53.0%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -30.0%

Leixoes (A) 17.2%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -55.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto B face Leixoes in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto B a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Leixoes 17%, so FC Porto B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Porto B and 0.9 for Leixoes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto B are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.36 for Leixoes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.0%. This match finished 0-3.

FC Porto B vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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