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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rhode Island

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.0%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.6%1-19.9%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.9%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.5%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -14.5%

Away win 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 57.1% 1.75 +10.4%

Over 3.5 38.8% 36.4% 2.75 +6.7%

BTTS 61.6% 58.8% 1.70 +4.7%

Home O1.5 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Away O1.5 34.7% 29.4% 3.40 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.0

Rhode Island1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 1.89

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay Rowdies (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -11.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.5%

Rhode Island (A) 25.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay Rowdies face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay Rowdies a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Rhode Island 26%, so Tampa Bay Rowdies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.2 for Rhode Island (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay Rowdies are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.12 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.0%.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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