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CF Montreal vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

CF Montreal

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

DC United

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.3%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.2%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 45.0% 2.22 -2.3%

Draw 26.0% 27.8% 3.60 -3.8%

Away win 30.0% 34.2% 2.92 -12.4%

Over 2.5 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Over 3.5 30.5% 35.7% 2.80 -14.6%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 35.2% 42.0% 2.38 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal1.5

DC United1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 1.33

DC UNITED · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -2.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.8%

DC United (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face DC United in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 44% chance, the draw 26% and DC United 30%, so CF Montreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CF Montreal and 1.2 for DC United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.22 for DC United.

CF Montreal vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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