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Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Atlanta United FC

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

New York Red Bulls

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.5%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.3%1-110.2%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.1%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 52.6% 1.90 -9.2%

Draw 22.9% 25.3% 3.95 -5.7%

Away win 29.3% 29.0% 3.45 +0.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 69.0% 1.45 -8.5%

Over 3.5 38.9% 47.6% 2.10 -18.3%

BTTS 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Home O1.5 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Away O1.5 42.6% 46.5% 2.15 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta United FC1.8

New York Red Bulls1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 0.88

NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta United FC (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -9.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -5.7%

New York Red Bulls (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta United FC face New York Red Bulls in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United FC a 48% chance, the draw 23% and New York Red Bulls 29%, so Atlanta United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Atlanta United FC and 1.4 for New York Red Bulls (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United FC are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.22 for New York Red Bulls.

Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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