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Charlotte vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Columbus Crew

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.8%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.7%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 45.0% 2.22 +21.9%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 22.5% 34.5% 2.90 -20.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 60.6% 1.65 +1.8%

Over 3.5 38.6% 37.7% 2.65 +2.3%

BTTS 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Home O1.5 57.0% 51.8% 1.93 +10.0%

Away O1.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte2.0

Columbus Crew1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.80

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 54.9%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +21.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

Columbus Crew (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face Columbus Crew in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Columbus Crew 23%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Charlotte and 1.1 for Columbus Crew (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.67 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.1%.

Charlotte vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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