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Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City SC

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Cincinnati

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+20.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.1%0-21.3%0-31.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-01.4%1-13.3%1-23.9%1-33.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-02.1%2-15.0%2-25.9%2-34.6%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.1%3-15.0%3-25.9%3-34.6%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-17.8%4+-29.2%4+-37.3%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 47.2% 2.12 +8.8%

Draw 20.0% 24.4% 4.10 -10.8%

Away win 28.7% 35.5% 2.82 -11.4%

Over 2.5 79.2% 78.1% 1.28 +1.4%

Over 3.5 57.7% 58.8% 1.70 -1.9%

BTTS 69.4% 80.0% 1.25 -13.3%

Home O1.5 80.3% 66.7% 1.50 +20.4%

Away O1.5 64.9% 57.8% 1.73 +12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.4%

H 51% / xG 3.0-2.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 5.9%

#2 3–2 5.9%

#3 2–1 5.0%

#4 3–1 5.0%

#5 2–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City SC3.0

FC Cincinnati2.4

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.2% · O3.5 PROB 57.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 1.62

FC CINCINNATI · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City SC (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +8.8%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.8%

FC Cincinnati (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City SC face FC Cincinnati in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City SC a 51% chance, the draw 20% and FC Cincinnati 29%, so Orlando City SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Orlando City SC and 2.4 for FC Cincinnati (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City SC are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.78 for FC Cincinnati. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.4%.

Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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