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Houston Dynamo FC II vs Ventura County Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:00

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ventura County

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.8%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-18.6%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.3%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-17.0%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 16.3% — — —

Over 2.5 62.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 23.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo FC II2.3

Ventura County0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 2.78

VENTURA COUNTY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo FC II (H) 63.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ventura County (A) 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo FC II face Ventura County in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo FC II a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Ventura County 16%, so Houston Dynamo FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Houston Dynamo FC II and 0.9 for Ventura County (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo FC II are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Ventura County.

Houston Dynamo FC II vs Ventura County Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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