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Toronto II vs Chattanooga Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:00

Toronto II

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chattanooga

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.4%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.0%1-19.6%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 34.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 40.7% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto II1.8

Chattanooga1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO II · PPG 1.78

CHATTANOOGA · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toronto II (H) 43.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chattanooga (A) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto II face Chattanooga in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto II a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Chattanooga 34%, so Toronto II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Toronto II and 1.6 for Chattanooga (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto II are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.30 for Chattanooga.

Toronto II vs Chattanooga Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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