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Chicago Fire II vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:00

Chicago Fire II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orlando City II

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.5%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.7%1-16.6%1-24.7%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.5%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-19.1%4+-26.4%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 62.5% 1.60 -7.0%

Draw 20.0% 25.6% 3.90 -13.2%

Away win 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Over 2.5 68.8% 73.5% 1.36 -6.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 56.2% 1.78 -16.0%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 63.4% 74.1% 1.35 -14.4%

Away O1.5 42.6% 44.6% 2.24 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Fire II2.6

Orlando City II1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 2.00

ORLANDO CITY II · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Fire II (H) 58.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -7.0%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.2%

Orlando City II (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Fire II face Orlando City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Fire II a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Orlando City II 22%, so Chicago Fire II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Chicago Fire II and 1.4 for Orlando City II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Fire II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.36 for Orlando City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Chicago Fire II vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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