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Real Monarchs vs Minnesota United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 21:30

Real Monarchs

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Minnesota United II

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.1%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Monarchs1.7

Minnesota United II1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MONARCHS · PPG 1.36

MINNESOTA UNITED II · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Monarchs (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Minnesota United II (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Monarchs face Minnesota United II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Monarchs a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Minnesota United II 27%, so Real Monarchs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Monarchs and 1.2 for Minnesota United II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Monarchs are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.09 for Minnesota United II.

Real Monarchs vs Minnesota United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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