Today / USA - MLS / Toronto FC vs New England Revolution

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Toronto FC

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

New England Revolution

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.3%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.2%1-111.6%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.2%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 47.2% 2.12 -3.5%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 58.3% 60.6% 1.65 -3.8%

Over 3.5 34.8% 38.2% 2.62 -8.8%

BTTS 60.3% 64.5% 1.55 -6.5%

Home O1.5 47.0% 54.1% 1.85 -13.1%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto FC1.6

New England Revolution1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO FC · PPG 1.22

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toronto FC (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

New England Revolution (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto FC face New England Revolution in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto FC a 46% chance, the draw 25% and New England Revolution 30%, so Toronto FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Toronto FC and 1.3 for New England Revolution (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto FC are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.71 for New England Revolution.

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions