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Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:05

Atletico Nacional

PPG 2.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santa Fe

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.2%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-17.6%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-17.8%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 65.8% 1.52 +1.5%

Draw 18.1% 25.3% 3.95 -17.1%

Away win 15.0% 16.0% 6.25 -3.8%

Over 2.5 60.8% 54.1% 1.85 +12.5%

Over 3.5 37.9% 30.8% 3.25 +23.2%

BTTS 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 58.8% 1.70 +7.1%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 67% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Nacional2.4

Santa Fe0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 2.83

SANTA FE · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.68 for Home, form 2.83 vs 1.23 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Nacional (H) 66.8%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV +1.5%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -17.1%

Santa Fe (A) 15.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Nacional face Santa Fe in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Nacional a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Santa Fe 15%, so Atletico Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Atletico Nacional and 0.7 for Santa Fe (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Nacional are averaging 2.83 points per game versus 1.23 for Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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