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Fortaleza FC vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:20

Fortaleza FC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cucuta

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+15.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-19.0%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-17.1%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.4%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 61.3% 1.63 -4.0%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Away win 19.2% 18.2% 5.50 +3.4%

Over 2.5 60.4% 47.6% 2.10 +26.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 26.3% 3.80 +39.8%

BTTS 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

Home O1.5 62.3% 54.1% 1.85 +15.3%

Away O1.5 21.5% 22.2% 4.50 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza FC2.2

Cucuta0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA FC · PPG 1.73

CUCUTA · PPG 0.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza FC (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -4.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

Cucuta (A) 19.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza FC face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza FC a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Cucuta 19%, so Fortaleza FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fortaleza FC and 0.9 for Cucuta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza FC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.42 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Fortaleza FC vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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