Today / Colombia - Primera A / Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga

Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:05

Alianza Valledupar

PPG 1.09 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Bucaramanga

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-114.3%0-26.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.7%2-16.4%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 35.0% 2.86 +3.3%

Draw 33.1% 32.8% 3.05 +0.9%

Away win 30.7% 39.1% 2.56 -21.4%

Over 2.5 43.9% 42.6% 2.35 +3.2%

Over 3.5 22.0% 22.2% 4.50 -0.6%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 27.7% 36.4% 2.75 -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0 14.2%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Valledupar0.9

Bucaramanga0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR · PPG 1.09

BUCARAMANGA · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.00, combined xG 1.90 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Valledupar (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +3.3%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +0.9%

Bucaramanga (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Valledupar face Bucaramanga in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Valledupar a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Bucaramanga 31%, so Alianza Valledupar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Alianza Valledupar and 0.9 for Bucaramanga (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Valledupar are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.91 for Bucaramanga. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions