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America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 01:15

America de Cali

PPG 2.27 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atletico Nacional

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 40.3% — a clear edge.

+31.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.8%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.0%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 40.3% 2.48 +31.7%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.6% 34.2% 2.92 -20.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 45.1% 39.2% 2.55 +15.0%

Away O1.5 22.7% 35.1% 2.85 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0✓ 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America de Cali1.5

Atletico Nacional0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 2.27

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 1.71

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

America de Cali (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +31.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Atletico Nacional (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face Atletico Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Atletico Nacional 23%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for America de Cali and 0.9 for Atletico Nacional (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.71 for Atletico Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 1-0.

America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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