Today / Colombia - Primera A / Jaguares vs Once Caldas

Jaguares vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 23:10

Jaguares

PPG 1.45 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Once Caldas

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+11.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.1%0-26.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.0%1-111.9%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.8%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 25.3% 3.95 +41.8%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

Over 2.5 60.4% 47.6% 2.10 +26.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 26.7% 3.75 +38.0%

BTTS 60.3% 54.1% 1.85 +11.6%

Home O1.5 37.4% 29.0% 3.45 +29.0%

Away O1.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaguares1.3

Once Caldas1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGUARES · PPG 1.45

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jaguares (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +41.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Once Caldas (A) 39.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaguares face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaguares a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Once Caldas 40%, so Once Caldas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jaguares and 1.5 for Once Caldas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaguares are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.27 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Jaguares vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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