Today / Colombia - Primera A / Santa Fe vs Chico

Santa Fe vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Santa Fe

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Chico

PPG 0.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+30.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.3%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.0%1-14.1%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.7%2-16.5%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.4%3-16.8%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-023.5%4+-111.9%4+-23.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.1% 70.9% 1.41 +5.9%

Draw 16.5% 23.3% 4.30 -17.4%

Away win 8.4% 13.0% 7.70 -21.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 47.6% 2.10 +41.1%

Over 3.5 44.0% 26.0% 3.85 +69.4%

BTTS 48.4% 42.0% 2.38 +15.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 59.9% 1.67 +30.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 15.4% 6.50 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 75% / xG 3.2-0.5 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.4%

#2 2–0✓ 12.7%

#3 4–0 10.6%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe3.2

Chico0.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.67

CHICO · PPG 0.09

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.66 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.09 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 75.1%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV +5.9%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -17.4%

Chico (A) 8.4%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face Chico in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Chico 8%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Santa Fe and 0.5 for Chico (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.09 for Chico. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +69.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Santa Fe vs Chico Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions