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Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 23:00

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Millonarios

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+22.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.8%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.6%1-110.7%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 40.0% 2.50 +32.0%

Draw 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.1%

Away win 23.8% 36.0% 2.78 -20.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 48.8% 2.05 +22.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 26.7% 3.75 +36.9%

BTTS 58.5% 55.6% 1.80 +5.3%

Home O1.5 53.2% 40.8% 2.45 +30.3%

Away O1.5 34.7% 37.7% 2.65 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellin1.8

Millonarios1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.67

MILLONARIOS · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellin (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +32.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.1%

Millonarios (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellin face Millonarios in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellin a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Millonarios 24%, so Independiente Medellin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Independiente Medellin and 1.1 for Millonarios (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellin are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.80 for Millonarios. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +53.7%.

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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