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Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:30

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Deportivo Cali

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-110.2%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.2%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 32.8% 3.05 +40.6%

Draw 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Away win 26.3% 41.3% 2.42 -21.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 40.8% 2.45 +7.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% 21.1% 4.75 +2.7%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 36.5% 30.8% 3.25 +18.6%

Away O1.5 20.4% 36.4% 2.75 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pasto1.3

Deportivo Cali0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.67

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 0.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pasto (H) 46.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +40.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Deportivo Cali (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto face Deportivo Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pasto a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Cali 26%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.8 for Deportivo Cali (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pasto are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.80 for Deportivo Cali. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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