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Junior vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 01:05

Junior

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-13.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.3%1-18.0%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.2%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-15.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 76.3% 1.31 -15.8%

Draw 21.6% 20.8% 4.80 +2.2%

Away win 14.1% 9.8% 10.25 +26.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 57.1% 1.75 -12.7%

Over 3.5 30.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

BTTS 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

Home O1.5 60.9% 69.0% 1.45 -11.7%

Away O1.5 16.7% 18.2% 5.50 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior2.2

Deportivo Pereira0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.71

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -15.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.2%

Deportivo Pereira (A) 14.1%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Deportivo Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pereira 14%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Junior and 0.6 for Deportivo Pereira (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.33 for Deportivo Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.4%.

Junior vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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