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Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:00

Llaneros

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Tolima

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-111.6%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-17.4%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-12.8%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 36.2% 2.76 +22.8%

Draw 30.0% 31.7% 3.15 -5.5%

Away win 25.5% 39.1% 2.56 -20.8%

Over 2.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 47.7% 52.4% 1.91 -8.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 35.7% 2.80 -15.4%

Away O1.5 19.3% 37.7% 2.65 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llaneros1.1

Deportes Tolima0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANEROS · PPG 1.45

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Llaneros (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +22.8%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.5%

Deportes Tolima (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Llaneros face Deportes Tolima in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llaneros a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Deportes Tolima 26%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Llaneros and 0.8 for Deportes Tolima (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llaneros are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.17 for Deportes Tolima. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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