Today / Colombia - Primera A / Águilas Doradas vs Llaneros

Águilas Doradas vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 21:00

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Llaneros

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-110.3%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-112.8%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.0%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 50.5% 1.98 -4.4%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 24.1% 26.0% 3.85 -4.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Over 3.5 26.0% 23.1% 4.33 +7.5%

BTTS 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Home O1.5 35.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.4%

Away O1.5 19.3% 26.7% 3.75 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Águilas Doradas1.3

Llaneros0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.55

LLANEROS · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Águilas Doradas (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -4.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Llaneros (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Águilas Doradas face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águilas Doradas a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Llaneros 24%, so Águilas Doradas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Águilas Doradas and 0.8 for Llaneros (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águilas Doradas are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.18 for Llaneros. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%.

Águilas Doradas vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions