Today / Poland - Ekstraklasa / Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice

Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 17:00

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+34.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.1%1-16.0%1-24.4%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.5%3-25.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-19.9%4+-27.2%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 45.9% 2.18 +40.0%

Draw 17.1% 28.2% 3.55 -39.3%

Away win 18.8% 32.8% 3.05 -42.7%

Over 2.5 78.8% 58.8% 1.70 +34.0%

Over 3.5 60.3% 35.7% 2.80 +68.8%

BTTS 71.8% 62.5% 1.60 +14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob71.8%

H 64% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1✓ 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lechia Gdansk2.7

Piast Gliwice1.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 1.93

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Lechia Gdansk (H) 64.2%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +40.0%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -39.3%

Piast Gliwice (A) 18.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia Gdansk face Piast Gliwice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia Gdansk a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Piast Gliwice 19%, so Lechia Gdansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.5 for Piast Gliwice (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.21 for Piast Gliwice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +68.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraklasa Predictions