← Back to picks

Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa logo Poland flag Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 29 Polsat Plus Arena· Gdansk Monday, April 20, 2026 17:00
Lechia Gdansk logo Lechia Gdansk PPG 1.93
1-1 HIT CS3
Piast Gliwice logo Piast Gliwice PPG 1.21
Over3.5· +68.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia Gdansk face Piast Gliwice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia Gdansk a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Piast Gliwice 19%, so Lechia Gdansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.5 for Piast Gliwice (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.21 for Piast Gliwice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +68.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.2%
Odds: 2.18 EV: +40.0%
Draw 17.1%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -39.3%
Away 18.8%
Odds: 3.05 EV: -42.7%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 78.8% Odds: 1.70 +34.0%
Over 3.5 60.3% Odds: 2.80 +68.8%
BTTS 71.8% Odds: 1.60 +14.9%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1
2nd 3-1
3rd 1-1
4th 2-2
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Lechia Gdansk
2.73
Piast Gliwice
1.46

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +34.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+68.8%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org