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Central Espanol vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Central Espanol

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Progreso

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 42.4% — a clear edge.

+27.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.5%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-111.1%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.3%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 42.4% 2.36 +27.4%

Draw 24.8% 33.3% 3.00 -15.4%

Away win 21.2% 33.6% 2.98 -22.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 40.8% 2.45 +23.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 21.1% 4.75 +22.1%

BTTS 49.5% 50.0% 2.00 -1.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% 37.0% 2.70 +32.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 30.8% 3.25 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.6%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Espanol1.7

Progreso0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.64

PROGRESO · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Central Espanol (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +27.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.4%

Progreso (A) 21.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Espanol face Progreso in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Espanol a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Progreso 21%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Central Espanol and 0.8 for Progreso (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Espanol are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.73 for Progreso. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Central Espanol vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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