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Club Nacional vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

Club Nacional

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Boston River

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.8%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-19.6%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.5%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 18.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Nacional2.0

Boston River0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB NACIONAL · PPG 1.73

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Nacional (H) 57.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boston River (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Nacional face Boston River in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Nacional a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Boston River 20%, so Club Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Club Nacional and 0.8 for Boston River (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Nacional are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.73 for Boston River. This match finished 1-2.

Club Nacional vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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