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Liverpool Montevideo vs Albion FC Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Albion FC

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-112.5%0-26.9%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.5%2-17.2%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.3%3-12.6%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 48.1% 2.08 -25.1%

Draw 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away win 34.3% 27.8% 3.60 +23.5%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.6% 2.35 +3.4%

Over 3.5 22.0% 22.2% 4.50 -0.6%

BTTS 49.0% 51.3% 1.95 -4.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

Away O1.5 35.4% 27.4% 3.65 +29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.0%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–0✓ 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool Montevideo1.1

Albion FC1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.00

ALBION FC · PPG 1.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool Montevideo (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -25.1%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Albion FC (A) 34.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool Montevideo face Albion FC in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool Montevideo a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Albion FC 34%, so Liverpool Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Liverpool Montevideo and 1.1 for Albion FC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool Montevideo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.90 for Albion FC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +29.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Albion FC Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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