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FC Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group - 27 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 17:00

FC Midtjylland

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

AGF Aarhus

PPG 2.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.4%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.6%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -23.2%

Away win 33.7% 27.8% 3.60 +21.3%

Over 2.5 65.2% 54.1% 1.85 +20.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 32.3% 3.10 +33.9%

BTTS 65.9% 59.9% 1.67 +10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob65.9%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Midtjylland1.8

AGF Aarhus1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 2.00

AGF AARHUS · PPG 2.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.23)

Win probability 1X2

FC Midtjylland (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.2%

AGF Aarhus (A) 33.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Midtjylland face AGF Aarhus in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Midtjylland a 44% chance, the draw 23% and AGF Aarhus 34%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Midtjylland and 1.6 for AGF Aarhus (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Midtjylland are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.23 for AGF Aarhus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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